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Reasoned Library · Oct 18, 2026

Hold and look through the fuel shock

3 reasons2 sources

The Fed keeps its rate at 3.75–4.00% and only raises it again if inflation outside food and energy keeps climbing.

Reasons

  1. 1.

    Higher interest rates don’t produce more oil or diesel, so they can’t fix a price spike caused by war.

  2. 2.

    The job market is already weakening, and another hike could tip it into recession.

  3. 3.

    Real wages are already falling, so households are being squeezed without also paying more to borrow.

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